Upside
This week's happenings in startup and investing land. Getting underneath VC, and discussing how to better support the European startup eco-system.
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Upside
Upside Ep #60 — Germany's White Gold, The UK's Red Ink, and Reinventing VC
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🎧 Upside Ep #60 — “White Gold, Red Ink, and Reinventing VC”
Hosts: Dan · Lomax · Andrew
Recorded: Oct 2, 2025
01:00 – Quick News Highlights
- 🇺🇸 US Shutdown — $15B GDP loss per week; political theatre more than fiscal risk.
- 🇬🇧 Labour Party Conference — Starmer’s 13% approval, OBR to cut productivity; £10B headroom could flip to £20B deficit.
- 💰 UK recovers $5B from Bitcoin fraud (FT)
- 🔐 UK demands Apple backdoor again (TechCrunch)
- 🤖 OpenAI $500B valuation (FT)
- 🌉 EF exits Europe, launches “Bridge” Bay Area program (Sifted)
- 🎬 Sora 2 video model - Sam A videos. Bwahaha
10:00 – EF’s US Pivot
EF closes Paris/Berlin, focusing on US founder “sheep-dipping.”
Validation of EU founder quality but reminder: growth capital + urgency still American advantages.
17:00 – Germany’s Lithium Discovery
- 43M tons found in northern Germany — ~$600B in-ground value.
- DLE extraction (from brines) cleaner but unproven.
- Europe could cover 50 years of demand, yet permitting, costs, and NIMBY issues loom.
- Real win may lie in refining and gigafactory build-out, not mining alone.
22:00 – London’s IPO Decline
- London slips to #23 globally; IPO volume down 69% ($248M → $42M).
- Causes: low equity appetite, no tech weighting, over-regulation, pension conservatism.
- Fixes: incentivise pension investment, cut stamp duty, attract tech listings.
27:00 – Should Governments Bail Out?
- UK guarantees £1.5B loan to JLR (post-cyberattack).
- Critics: moral hazard, no cyber-insurance, political pork-barrelling.
- Compare: Germany’s bold €500B public investment plan.
- Consensus: backstop only if government gets warrants + drives reform.
41:00 – Reinventing VC
- US mega-firms become RIAs, investing across public/private assets.
- New players: Evantic ($400M), Striker (10 LPs × 10 startups).
- AI models now beat humans at picking founders.
- Europe lags — still relationship-driven, early-stage remains “artisanal.”
51:00 – Deals of the Week
- 💥 Concept Ventures – £88M pre-seed fund (UK)
- 🧪 Periodic Labs – $300M seed (ex-DeepMind/OpenAI)
- 💼 Creator Fund – €80M pan-EU deep tech
- ⚖️ Legora – raising $100M @ $1.7B
- 🧠 Black Forest Labs – $4B valuation talks
- 🦄 Cleo, Tide hit unicorn status
57:00 – Defence & Tech
- Highlights from London Resilience Conference: surge in EU defence startups, faster US build cycles, procurement reform lagging.
- MI6’s real “Q” reveals gadget: surveillance dog poo.
59:00 – Wrap
Europe’s week in contrast: industrial ambition (Germany), structural pain (London), creative churn (VC & AI). Momentum builds — even amid the mess.
