Upside
This week's happenings in startup and investing land. Getting underneath VC, and discussing how to better support the European startup eco-system.
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Upside
Upside #61 - Defence Special PLUS what IS the AI bubble really?
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Voices: Nicholas Nelson (Archangel) • Dan • Lomax • Mads
TL;DR
- Defence-first wins on capability and returns; primes are partners and channels.
- Helsing: buys platforms/revenue for access; layers AI—different from Anduril’s buy-TRL-tech + scale model.
- Beyond drones: biggest gap/opportunity is tactical EW.
- Procurement: more fast lanes (SOF, pilots); primes getting easier to work with.
- AI: real profits exist (esp. NVIDIA), but value chain is fragile; expect a correction, not a collapse. Picking winners > timing.
02:40 — Why defence-first
Beats dual-use on outcomes and returns; lifelong focus.
04:32 — Definitions
Customer = MoDs + primes; aim: lethality/readiness and societal resilience. Beware “defence-washing”.
06:37 — What’s hot
Avoid herd to drones only; counter-UAS, EW, human performance, deception, survivability.
08:23 — Helsing buys Grob
Neo-prime play: new co buys legacy manufacturing for platform access.
10:42 — The two Defence M&A playbooks
Anduril: buys mid-TRL tech (Area-I, Dive LD/Ghost Shark, Adranos) → scales via brand/distribution.
Helsing: buys finished products/revenue (Mittelstand) → immediate customers; then add AI.
14:25 — Prime status & capital
Distribution + capital to AI-enable platforms.
17:47 — Roll-up vs build
Narrative “build”; execution “roll-up + build”.
19:47 — Drones & ‘drone wall’
Layered answer: blunt with drones, hold with conventional forces.
21:49 — The big one: Electronic Warfare (EW)
NATO underinvested; tactical EW is the unmet need; legacy kit is ’80s/’90s.
24:54 — Startup wedge
Put EW at the edge (drones/aircraft/fixed) → near-term wins.
26:33 — Baltic realism
History, 2007–09 Estonia cyber, current incursions; likely Kaliningrad corridor.
28:19 — Founder mistakes
Tech ≠ win by itself; experience + gov engagement matters; US analogue: top funds have IC/SOF DNA.
30:43 — Are there really only a “Few buyers?”
Many real buyers inside a MoD/DoD (services, sub-units, innovation orgs).
36:23 — Sovereignty & US primes
US strategics will buy abroad; Europe balancing autonomy with jobs/exits.
41:07 — Starlink vs IRIS²
Starlink’s lead + cadence; IRIS² slower—watch timelines vs evolving threats.
47:18 — AI bubble?
Warnings vs fundamentals; self-funded capex; real profits.
49:37 — NVIDIA ramp
$4.4B (2023) → $73B this year; growth tempers multiples.
51:48 — AI Circular money & margins
Cursor → Anthropic → hyperscalers → NVIDIA; only NVIDIA mints big margins; margin pressure coming (new semis, China, SLMs).
53:12 — Picking beats timing
Dot-com lesson: Cisco losses vs Amazon wins.
54:19 — Capacity vs efficiency
Capex likely useful long-run, but open source squeezes costs.
55:52 — Platform risk
Frontier labs moving up-stack; vertical AI + trust + data = moat.
58:58 — Base case
Likely correction (30–50%) at some point; timing is unknowable (not investment advice).
