Upside
This week's happenings in startup and investing land. Getting underneath VC, and discussing how to better support the European startup eco-system.
Every week we share what's been on our mind and get under the skin of VC, investing, startups and founder psychology.
From the team behind SuperSeed who invest in technical teams solving difficult business problems.
The network is run on LinkedIn so join me there - https://www.linkedin.com/in/danbowyer/
With full interview audio and video uploaded to all major outlets.
Love to hear from you - dan@superseed.com
Upside
Should You Raise Right Now? Should Govts Buy Stocks? Should NVIDIA Have Bought Nokia?
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The pod that unpacks the real news behind the clickbait affecting European venture.
Hosts: Dan, Mads, Lomax, Andrew
02:41 — Bending Spoons deep dive
Debt-fuelled roll-up, “Berkshire of consumer apps” analogy; Ukrainian peer Gentek noted; why more post-COVID roll-ups didn’t materialise.
04:34 — US debt vs Europe risk
Market’s view on capital allocation/dynamism; Decacorns vs unicorns; power-law returns reinforce Botha’s point.
06:01 — “VC isn’t an asset class” debate
Power-law concentration, PR angle, and incentives; media takeaways.
07:31 — Euro VC vibes
Lakestar & optics; ecosystem still 5× over decade despite headlines.
08:30 — Feature: Should governments buy stocks?
Khosla’s 10% stake in all public companies to offset AI/AGI shocks:
- Pros: Alignment with growth; potential UBI funding; sovereign-wealth-style upside.
- Cons: Partial nationalisation optics, execution complexity, tying state finances tighter to market swings.
- Middle paths: SWF/index recycling of taxes; robot/compute taxation; focus on efficient government vs expropriation.
17:45 — Back-of-envelope math
US equities ~$60T → 10% ≈ $6T; even 10% yield wouldn’t cover current US interest bill; cautions on bull-market assumptions.
19:03 — UK Budget preview (26 Nov)
Backdrop: softer productivity, fiscal squeeze.
- Likely: CGT/inheritance tweaks, mansion tax; maybe EMI/startup relief refinements.
- Founder advice: avoid doom loop—head down and build; some may move to US, less so Dubai.
22:25 — Should founders raise now (pre-correction)?
- Consensus: If you can raise on decent terms, extend runway; always-be-raising (selectively).
- Don’t panic or over-dilute; keep shipping.
- If no PMF, fix product/positioning before chasing capital.
29:02 — AI Corner
- NVIDIA at $5T: Hyperscalers’ capex still ramping; huge backlog; dominance but margins likely compress with competition/custom silicon.
- Nokia stake: Smart edge/5G–6G positioning; GPUs closer to towers for network optimisation & edge AI.
- OpenAI recap: For-profit structure finalised; Microsoft looks like the clearest public proxy (exclusivities, licenses).
- Meta’s mixed moment & layoffs framed more as performance-management cycles than AI doom.
42:58 — Deals of the Week
- Sales Patriot (Warsaw): €4.2m to modernise defence procurement; aim to be system of record.
- Legora (legal AI, Stockholm): $150m at $1.8B, ~5 months after Series B.
- Robin AI: Sale process after $70m raised—cautionary tale on GTM/scale.
- Bending Spoons ↔ AOL/Vimeo: More roll-up momentum.
- Synthesia: $200m at $4B; reportedly turned down a $3B Adobe offer—go-for-growth stance.
45:50 — UK quantum spotlight
QFX round (Paul Graham involved); UK’s deep quantum bench (PsiQuantum/Quantinuum roots; Oxford Ionics ~$1B sale to IonQ). Challenge: scaling while keeping firms in the UK.
