Upside
This week's happenings in startup and investing land. Getting underneath VC, and discussing how to better support the European startup eco-system.
Every week we share what's been on our mind and get under the skin of VC, investing, startups and founder psychology.
From the team behind SuperSeed who invest in technical teams solving difficult business problems.
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Upside
God AI - A German Ecosystem Deepdive - Part Time VCs - Google Hot Or Not?
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Upside #68 w/ Robin Haak (Robin Capital), Lomax (Outsized), Mads and Dan (SuperSeed).
Topics: Germany’s slowdown • Social media bans • UK budget • Solo GPs • N26 • Europe vs Big Tech • AI Corner
01:21 – Robin’s Background
100+ investments, 8 unicorns. Co-founded SmartRecruiters → sold to SAP ($100M ARR). Former GP at Revaya (€600M AUM). Now building a 50-year solo GP franchise.
03:58 – Social Media Ban for Under-16s
Mads: EU Parliament pushes advisory resolution; strong evidence social media harms teen mental health, especially girls.
06:39 – US Says “Go Easy on Big Tech”
Lomax: US Commerce voices warn EU that tech regulation ties into trade/tariff negotiations. Don’t conflate antitrust with child safety—two different battles.
10:00 – UK Budget
Improved EMI stock options - More flexible EIS / VCT rules. Nice to hear a Chancellor talk about startups & innovation.
12:17 – EU Space Surveillance
ESA launches its first military space programme (€1B). Far behind the US, but a step toward defence autonomy.
13:19 – N26 Troubles
Regulatory caps slowed growth for years, BaFin repeatedly intervened. Leadership now reshuffling. Big question: Would N26 be Revolut-sized if founded outside Germany?
18:49 – German Economy Reality Check
GDP still below 2019 levels. Insolvencies highest in a decade. Restaurants down 20–40%. Years of underinvestment in tech, infrastructure, energy. Early nuclear shutdown = higher energy costs, fallback to coal.
25:04 – Why No Nuclear Return?
Public wants it (~75%). Politics block it; ideology > pragmatism.
27:07 – German Decline Impact on Startups
ESOP improved (still heavy tax). Bureaucracy is brutal: notaries, translations, delays. Many founders incorporate Delaware C-Corp + German GmbH.
Solo GP / Part-Time VC Trend
34:21 – The Movement
US led the way: Elad Gil, Auren, Buckley.
Three types: Lifelong solo GPs. Solo-to-multi-GP founders. Part-time solo GPs (e.g., 11 Labs’ Carlos Reiner). It works at $15–30M scale; Fund II usually becomes full-time.
40:10 – OpenAI, Google & Anthropic
OpenAI may need $200B+ by 2030. Google’s Gemini 3 beating OpenAI on many benchmarks. Monetisation gap: only ~5% of ChatGPT users pay. Warren Buffett buying Google is a signal?
44:57 – The Scary Bit: God-AI
Robin cites Eric Schmidt: If an adversary builds god-AI first, “we might have to bomb it.”
