Upside
This week's happenings in startup and investing land. Getting underneath VC, and discussing how to better support the European startup eco-system.
Every week we share what's been on our mind and get under the skin of VC, investing, startups and founder psychology.
From the team behind SuperSeed who invest in technical teams solving difficult business problems.
The network is run on LinkedIn so join me there - https://www.linkedin.com/in/danbowyer/
With full interview audio and video uploaded to all major outlets.
Love to hear from you - dan@superseed.com
Upside
Europe’s Comeback - Brexit 2.0 - Another ‘Code Red’ & Roll Up Roll Ups
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Upside #69 - For the real news behind the headlines affecting European venture, startups and investing. Every week Mads, Lomax, Andrew and myself (Dan) get together and chat.
Bending Spoons
01:27 Berkshire-like roll-up; mostly debt-funded; big integration/tech-debt execution risk.
3:30 “US→Italy arbitrage”—cut expensive US costs, rebuild with top Italian talent + high-efficiency culture; cash-cow ops; high employee satisfaction.
05:13 Success likely hinges on better distribution/ops than previous owners.
Brexit + Europe’s challenges
07:01 “trade intensity” vs G7—UK uniquely diverging down since 2019; services don’t offset goods loss.
09:20 Labour red lines may shift; customs union helps goods but politically messy (standards).
11:02 IKEA label anecdote → regulatory complexity.
12:30 VW/Europe: China competition + governance/union constraints; Europe slow to reform; supply-chain ripple risks.
23:00 Ecosystem fix: more R&D, talent/immigration, cut red tape, govt as buyer; biggest issue = late-stage capital/pensions.
AI Corner
32:20 OpenAI “code red” on Google; distribution battle; OpenAI focusing on product vs ads/monetisation.
36:03 Winners = product + distribution + cost at scale (Google infra/TPUs advantage).
39:03 Anthropic IPO rumours (2026) debated: access to bigger pools vs “top of cycle” cynicism.
Deal of the week
41:54 Black Forest Labs — $300m at $3.25bn; image-model leader; strong ARR rumoured.
43:13 ICEYE — €200m at ~€2.5bn; SAR satellites; defence demand.
44:05 Expedition Growth Capital fundraise — €323m.
44:23 Neurocore — ~$2.5m; platform tooling for robotics ML teams.
