Upside
This week's happenings in startup and investing land. Getting underneath VC, and discussing how to better support the European startup eco-system.
Every week we share what's been on our mind and get under the skin of VC, investing, startups and founder psychology.
From the team behind SuperSeed who invest in technical teams solving difficult business problems.
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Upside
10 Venture Predictions - The Picks & Nix For '26!
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Guests: Dan Bowyer, Mads Jensen, Lomax Ward and Dan Gray
Part 1 — 2025 predictions: what hit, what missed?
02:59 — OpenAI “dethroned”: debate, but mostly “yes”
04:47 — China/Taiwan “decisive year”: mostly no
05:46 — Defence tech surge: yes
06:46 — Europe/UK tech sovereignty: yes-ish but hard to measure
07:25 — Space enabling tech keeps attracting capital: yes
07:30 — US recession H2 2025: nope
09:07 — Stock correction early 2025: correct-ish
09:45 — M&A rebounds: yes
10:24 — IPO window reopens: yes-ish
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Part 2 — 2026 predictions (with yardsticks)
11:29 — (1) Dan Gray: “European Re-industrialisation”
Big industrial families + family offices start allocating more directly into innovation (seen around Munich/TUM).
13:11 — (2) Dan Bowyer: “Apple wins personal AI”
Dan bets 2026 is Apple’s “Siri actually works” year—especially via on-device models + partnerships (Google mentioned).
16:35 — (3) Mads: “3 major tech IPOs”
From this list: SpaceX, Databricks, Canva, Anduril, Anthropic — pick 3/5.
Mads goes big on Anthropic growth + enterprise leadership.
Dan Gray adds: IPOs cluster; post-IPO M&A often spikes; real test is 6–9 months later.
19:08 — (4) Lomax: “Biotech comes back from the dead”
Biotech rally underway (XBI up hard off lows).
24:39 — (5) Dan Gray: “Politics kills the 28th regime”
He doubts a single EU incorporation regime survives politics, but suggests a workaround:
28:51 — (6) Mads: “Chinese open-source AI hits 60% of downloads”
Notes China open-source share ~44% by end of 2025 (per the conversation), and cites growing adoption of open-source models in startups.
30:11 — (7) Lomax: “Longevity clinics go from boutique → (somewhat) mainstream”
Thesis: preventative, subscription-style health scales (Neko, Function Health examples).
33:31 — (8) Mads: “EU expands tariffs on Chinese goods beyond EVs”
Europe stops pretending tariffs are morally evil, and starts protecting industrial base more aggressively (supply chain breadth and/or higher rates).
34:50 — (9) Mads: “No AGI in 2026”
AGI definition mess continues.
40:19 — (10) Lomax: “Cyber becomes a clear and present threat”
AI lowers cost of recon, phishing, persistence; cyber as statecraft sits below “war thresholds.”
43:14 — Bonus (Mads): Robotaxis
Waymo keeps lead in the West (incl. London expansion/testing), Tesla makes progress but stays behind.
