Upside
This week's happenings in startup and investing land. Getting underneath VC, and discussing how to better support the European startup eco-system.
Every week we share what's been on our mind and get under the skin of VC, investing, startups and founder psychology.
From the team behind SuperSeed who invest in technical teams solving difficult business problems.
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Upside
Doh Davos, Data Centre Downsides, No To Delaware, Dead SaaS & Defence IPOs
Use Left/Right to seek, Home/End to jump to start or end. Hold shift to jump forward or backward.
01:35–10:24 — UK data centres: blocked… but a way through
A £1bn London-area data-centre project gets halted after a planning/EIA mess-up → delays of 9–12+ months, potentially worse.
The twist: data centres are being upgraded to “nationally significant infrastructure,” enabling central-government fast-track (DCO route) instead of local NIMBY planning.
Still: EIAs + judicial reviews can keep slowing everything down. Core complaint: the system keeps “deciding whether to build” after we’ve already decided we must.
10:24–20:01 — Davos: in a fractured world, can middle powers go solo?
Big takeaway: the old global order isn’t coming back. Middle powers doing bilateral deals risk being picked off one-by-one. The only viable strategy is bigger blocs + coordination.
On AI/robotics: Europe shouldn’t obsess over winning foundation models; the opportunity is physical AI (robotics, manufacturing, automation) layered onto Europe’s engineering base—if politics and fragmentation don’t smother it.
20:01–22:22 — AI vs jobs: don’t overkill the headline
Entry-level postings are down since early 2023, but the consensus here is: macro + rates explain most of it. AI will reshuffle work (especially junior/clerical tasks), but mass unemployment isn’t the base case.
22:22–27:46 — EU Inc / “28th regime”: real momentum and real resistance
EU Inc aims to make a pan-EU startup entity that’s fast/cheap to set up (48 hours, no minimum capital), plus simpler ESOPs (ideally tax deferred until liquidity).
The fight now: Regulation vs Directive
- Regulation = uniform + immediate, but needs unanimity
- Directive = easier, but invites delay + fragmentation
Expect pushback framed around labour standards and “race-to-the-bottom” fears.
27:46–34:51 — Has China already won AI?
Reframe “winning”: it’s not god-like AI dominance; it’s economic + military power with AI as a lever. Models converge fast, advantages erode, and the “months not years” gap matters.
Europe’s real risk is strategic irrelevance unless it scales power: capital markets, energy, defence capacity, and political cohesion (with a nod to the UK needing to be onside).
34:51–39:30 — US science funding “collapse”: brutal in pockets, not total
Big cuts and cancellations are real—especially in politically sensitive areas—but most US R&D is private sector, and defence-linked R&D keeps growing. Europe is trying to attract researchers, but this doesn’t yet look like a permanent talent migration.
39:30–43:13 — SaaS: dead? no? trapped?
SaaS faces a fork:
- Mature into a cash machine (cut bloat, optimise margins), or
- Become a “system of context” by embedding AI/agents deeply
Why the pain: ZIRP-era bloat + expensive orgs + incentive traps.
Bright spot: incumbents with distribution are already monetising AI add-ons at meaningful ARR.
43:13–45:47 — Defence IPO era: the Overton window moved
A blockbuster European defence IPO becomes the poster child for a broader trend: defence re-rated, ESG lines shifting, and a growing pipeline as European defence budgets rise for the next decade.
45:47–47:02 — Quick hits
Billion-scale European fund raise gets a shout-out. More big AI deals bubbling. New fund launch focused on robotics/manufacturing, positioned as aligned with what Europe needs next.
